issues and events

Science Board Warns of Uncertain Future for US Science and Engineering Leadership

The diminishing level of "native talent" entering science and engineering in the US is one of several factors that could significantly limit the country's R&D leadership.

The US remains the driving force in global science and technology R&D, but the National Science Board's Science and Engineering Indicators 2004 report points to an uncertain future because of a "troubling decline in the number of US citizens who are training to become scientists and engineers." This decline is occurring, the report says, as the number of jobs that demand such training continues to grow.

In a companion report to the Indicators 2004 document, the NSB says that if the science and engineering (S&E) trends continue undeterred, three things will happen: "The number of jobs in the US economy that require science and engineering training will grow; the number of US citizens prepared for those jobs will, at best, be level; and the availability of people from other countries who have [such] training will decline." The report says the decline in foreign scientists working in the US, who represent a significant portion of the S&E work force, is attributable to "limits to entry imposed by US national security restrictions, or because of intense global competition for people with these skills."

The NSB's Indicators 2004 report, produced every two years, is based on data developed by NSF's Division of Science Resources Statistics. The report provides an in−depth look at everything from the state of elementary and secondary education to global competitiveness of individual industries. The 2004 report restates many of the concerns raised in the 2002 report and arrives at the same basic conclusion: The US remains the world's S&E powerhouse, but faces long−term threats that must be dealt with now.

In comments made with the release of the report, NSB Chair Warren Washington said the US is in "a long−distance race" to retain its world leadership in science and technology. "For many years we have benefited from minimal competition in the global S&E labor market, but attractive and competitive alternatives are now expanding around the world," he said. "We must develop more fully our native talent."

Number of S&E doctoral degrees

If action isn't taken to attract more US students into the sciences, the companion report continues, "we could reach 2020 and find that the ability of US research and education institutions to regenerate has been damaged and that their preeminence has been lost to other areas of the world."

For the moment, however, the US maintains its dominant position through "continued strength in industry spending for R&D, combined with an upswing in Federal Government support that mainly reflects increases in health−related R&D," the report says. Based on 2001 data, the US accounted for "44% of the combined R&D spending of the 30 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development," the report says. The US spent nearly three times as much on R&D as did Japan, our closest competitor, and half again as much as all of the European Union countries combined.

As in the 2002 report, the 2004 document credits "many decades of government support for the conduct of R&D" for the strong US position in science. Federal funding of academic research has been especially important as the source of much of the nation's basic research, the report says. About 60% of academic R&D money in the past decade has come from federal funds. "Since 1990, inflation−adjusted federal dollars for academic R&D have grown continuously, increasing by about 66% through 2002," the report says.

Industry's "commitment to R&D as an engine of competitive strength and profit growth" also is credited in the report as helping to maintain US S&E leadership. "Company funded R&D, which first surpassed federally funded R&D in 1980, reached a record $180 billion in 2000. Although [corporate funding] has slowed down sharply, it remained near this level in the face of two years of economic weakness. In 2002, US−based firms spent an estimated $177 billion of their own funds on R&D, providing two−thirds of the national total of $276 billion."

But US S&E faces uncertainties in three areas, the report says. First is the "recasting of the relationship between S&T and national security." The report notes that the attacks of September 11th have changed the "strategic role of S&T in the post−cold war era." In particular, the terrorist attacks have affected the number of foreign students, scientists, and engineers in S&E, the appropriate balance between security and openness in scientific communication, and the contributions of R&D to domestic security. Although the changes in these areas are not yet clear, the report says, they are "issues of concern."

The report also notes that the globalization of the international S&E work force is a potential problem for the US. Although the presence of foreign−born S&E workers has driven the US S&E economy to expand at a significantly faster rate than the rest of the economy, that may change with the growth of S&E training programs in other countries. Foreign−born S&E workers who have traditionally come to the US now increasingly have other options, the report says.

With fewer foreign S&E workers, fewer US citizens with science degrees, and increased competition from abroad, the report concludes, "the US S&E work force growth will slow considerably, potentially affecting the relative technological position of the US economy."

The report highlights scores of trends in education, federal R&D performance, academic R&D, and industry in the global marketplace. Some of those trends are as follows:

• In US elementary and secondary education, student performance in math and science has improved "somewhat" during the past three decades across all racial and ethnic subgroups. A National Assessment of Educational Progress study shows that among high−school seniors, 74% of white students and 80% of Asian/ Pacific Islander students scored at or above a level deemed basic by a national panel of experts. Only 31% of black, 44% of Hispanic, and 57% of American Indian/Alaskan Native students attained that level.

• Achievement gaps between males and females have largely disappeared, especially in mathematics (in a study of 15−year−old students). But US students are performing "at or below the levels attained by students in other countries in the developed world."

• In higher education, interest in S&E study is high among freshmen, and their coursework preparation to study S&E is as good as in the past. However, 20% need remedial help in math and 10% in science.

• Graduate S&E enrollments from 1994 to 2001 reflect a decline of 10% in enrollment by US citizens and permanent residents, balanced by an increase of nearly 35% in foreign−graduate enrollment.

• Universities and colleges performed an estimated $36 billion of R&D in 2002, or 13% of the national total.

• Foreign−owned firms conducting R&D in the US accounted for $26.1 billion, or 13%, of the $199.5 billion total US industrial R&D expenditures in 2000.

• Since 1980, the number of nonacademic S&E jobs has grown at more than four times the rate of the US labor force as a whole. But barring changes in degree production or in immigration, the S&E labor force will grow at a slower rate, and the average age of scientists and engineers will increase.

• The total number of retirements among S&E−degreed workers will increase dramatically over the next 20 years. More than half of S&E−degreed workers are aged 40 or older.